The defection of Godwin Obaseki to the People’s Democratic Party on Friday, June 19 2020 was met with a lot of fanfare and public approval, majority of Nigerians were elated at the idea that the Edo State Governor was handed a lifeline following his disqualification from the All Progressives Congress, adding more flavor to the situation was the suspension of Oshiomole and power tussle at the APC.
While Obaseki’s arrival at PDP was celebrated by supporters of the Governor and prominent politicians in his new party, all is not smooth sailing as of yet. Obaseki needs to be aware that although he may not face the same predicaments in PDP as he did in APC, there are challenges that have plagued the People’s Democratic Party that are waiting for Obaseki after the fanfare settles.https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/pagead/ads?client=ca-pub-1883810847636355&output=html&h=316&slotname=8228856220&adk=3740527632&adf=3872947312&w=379&fwrn=7&lmt=1592726814&rafmt=11&psa=1&guci=2.2.0.0.2.2.0.0&format=379×316&url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-af.feednews.com%2Fnews%2Fdetail%2F5abc7bfc44c51fc5b42be615b6863a7a%3Fclient%3Dnews%26country%3Dng%26features%3D34359738287%26lang%3Den%26low_perf%3Dfalse%26mode%3Dbody%26swdp%3D411%26uid%3D59ea195a14c73245908b3459860979f93f145498&flash=0&wgl=1&adsid=NT&dt=1592726813643&bpp=25&bdt=4744&idt=814&shv=r20200610&cbv=r20190131&ptt=9&saldr=aa&abxe=1&cookie=ID%3D707cbc3539aa4e10%3AT%3D1592419423%3AS%3DALNI_Mboab6yKsRb-68uklt6Ax5OdDP5JA&crv=1&prev_fmts=0x0&nras=1&correlator=5455843877113&frm=20&pv=1&ga_vid=12903382.1592419337&ga_sid=1592726814&ga_hid=1889732195&ga_fc=0&iag=0&icsg=8923903&dssz=13&mdo=0&mso=0&rplot=4&u_tz=60&u_his=1&u_java=0&u_h=892&u_w=412&u_ah=892&u_aw=412&u_cd=24&u_nplug=0&u_nmime=0&adx=16&ady=587&biw=412&bih=719&scr_x=0&scr_y=0&eid=42530493%2C42530495&oid=3&pvsid=418088399894393&pem=714&rx=0&eae=0&fc=1924&brdim=0%2C0%2C0%2C0%2C412%2C0%2C412%2C719%2C412%2C719&vis=1&rsz=%7C%7CoEe%7C&abl=CS&pfx=0&fu=8336&bc=31&ifi=1&uci=a!1&fsb=1&xpc=NznvGPcBW7&p=https%3A//cdn-af.feednews.com&dtd=862
These are the four major pitfalls that await Obaseki in the People’s Democratic Party.
1. Financial Problems
Financial constraints are known to plague opposition parties, especially when they contest against the national ruling party. Political sponsors and lobbyists tend to lend their support to the ruling party, since the polity of Nigeria’s politics put election odds in their favor.
Political observers are of the opinion that Senator Adeleke of the People’s Democratic Party was given the waiver in Osun State to participate in the gubernatorial primaries for the sole reason of his deep pockets. The Osun State chapter of the PDP knew it did not have the financial capacity to compete with the APC and that gave Senator Adeleke to walk in and bulldoze his way to the candidacy.
Obaseki’s story is eerily similar to that of Adeleke, like the latter Obaseki has been given a waiver to contest the primaries due to his political weight and leverage, political analysts posit that the same way Adeleke almost singlehandedly bankrolled his elections is the same way Obaseki would sponsor his.
If Obaseki was still a member of the APC he would have gotten financial aid from different sources, national players would provide structures for funding as well as figures who had vested interests in his governance during his first term. Obaseki’s move to PDP means he will have to spend more of his money.
2. Trust Problems
It is not gainsay to note that the union of Godwin Obaseki and the People’s Democratic Party is a marriage of convenience, while the amalgamation of the two is met with fanfare at the surface, it masks a lot of insecurity and mistrust at the bottom of the barrel.
Both parties have reasons to distrust each other, Obaseki will be within his right to distrust his working relationship with the same figures who had been his opponents all through his political life. Obaseki should be wary of possible saboteurs or figures in the PDP who may not share the same governing drive as him.
The People’s Democratic Party also have reason to distrust Obaseki, they will not be wrong to feel that Obaseki’s separation from the APC is a spur of the moment decision. Obaseki still has a lot of friends in the APC party structure and it is not naïve to think that if the PDP carries Obaseki to the Governorship which will consequently end Oshiomole’s political influence, Obaseki’s friends in the APC ,may try to convince him back to their party in the absence of Oshiomole.
3. Godfather Problems
It will be political naiveté to believe that the problems of Godfathers is domiciled within the All Progressives Congress, the same way Obaseki was carried to the top in the APC by his erstwhile Godfather, Adams Oshiomole is the same way he has been carried to the top of the People’s Democratic Party by several leaders in the party. Obaseki has just moved on from one political godfather to another.
Obaseki’s spat with Oshiomole is rumored to have been caused by the latter’s interference in his policies, Obaseki was willing to act independently to the chagrin of his godfather. Obaseki should expect his new PDP overlords to attempt to dictate policy to him like Oshiomole allegedly did.
It will be interesting to see how Obaseki will deal with new faces trying to influence his policies because it will be a herculean task for him to combat the party structure of the PDP, even way harder than his bout with that of his old party.
4. Unity Problems
The People’s Democratic Party is notorious for being very divided and disorganized. Internal disorganization which resulted into the split of the “New PDP and Old PDP” caused the PDP to lose its ruling party status to the APC in 2015 and also losing multiple states to the rival party.
Due to the size and structure of the PDP, it was expected that they would form a formidable opposition party to the APC like the latter was to them, but save for few bright spots in the party, the PDP has equally failed in this role.
It will not be surprising if the PDP lives up to its reputed DNA and becomes so disunited they fail to rally fully behind Obaseki and win the September polls. Several figures in the Edo PDP have expressed displeasure at Obaseki’s emergence and may withdraw their support as well as the support of their supporters.
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